INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...


The home building sector of the housing market has roared back into action as Housing Starts surged 13.7% in October to a very nice sounding 1.29 million unit annual rate. About 1.5 million units a year are what we need to meet population growth and replace tear-downs, so we're making progress in that direction. Single family starts rose 5.3% for the month, to an 877,000 annual rate, and housing completions grew 12.6% to a 1.23 million yearly rate. The National Association of Realtors chief economist averred, "Overall, the total activity for the country is moving in the right path."

Housing analysts find it even more encouraging that Building Permits bumped up a solid 5.9% in October to a 1.3 million annual rate. Permits are viewed as a leading indicator of future starts, so this suggests the upward trend in home building should continue. Home builders certainly feel that way, as Builder Confidence hit an index level of 70 this month, the second highest read since July 2005. The National Association of Home Builders chief economist sees "continued upward movement of the single-family housing market." Freddie Mac forecasts new home sales will be the main driver of total home sales going into 2018.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Video has become a key way to market. Just remember, it doesn't have to be perfect--viewers understand you're as human as they are. Simply make your video as good as it can be, then post it.

>> Review of Last Week

EXISTING HOME SALES UP, FED MINUTES COME IN... Tuesday we'll get the first read on Existing Home Sales that wasn't negatively affected by the August and September hurricanes. The forecast is for those sales to be in growth mode for October. Just before Turkey Day, the Fed will share FOMC Minutesfrom its November 1 meeting. Rates held then, but everyone sees a hike coming next month, so we'll look for signs confirming that in the minutes.

The financial markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day. Friday, the stock market will close at 1 PM, the bond market at 2 PM.

>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Nov 20 - Nov 24

Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
M
Nov 20
10:00
Leading Economic Index (LEI) Oct 0.8% -0.2% Moderate
Tu
Nov 21
10:00
Existing Home Sales Oct
5.42M 5.39M Moderate
W
Nov 22
08:30
Initial Unemployment Claims
11/18
239K 249K Moderate
W
Nov 22
08:30
Continuing Unemployment Claims
11/11
NA 1.860M Moderate
W
Nov 22
08:30
Durable Goods Orders Oct 0.4% 2.2% Moderate
W
Nov 22
10:00
U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final Nov
97.9 97.8 Moderate
W
Nov 22
10:30 Crude Inventories 11/18 NA +1.9M Moderate
W
Nov 22
14:00 FOMC Minutes 11/01 NA NA HIGH


>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... The Fed futures market sees the Funds Rate going up for sure at next month's meeting, and there's growing sentiment we'll see a second small hike in March. Note: In the lower chart, a 100% probability of change is a 100% certainty the rate will rise, while a 5% probability of change is a 95% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.00%-1.25%

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Dec 13 1.25%-1.50%
Jan 31
1.25%-1.50%
Mar 21 1.25%-1.50%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Dec 13
     100%
Jan 31
         5%
Mar 21        48%



Jeremy Letzelter Headshot
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Phone: 614-679-1522
Dated: November 24th 2017
Views: 37
About Jeremy: I have worked in sales for over 13 years. I have purchased and sold investment properties for the pa...

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